It's Season Ticket Renewal Month!!

Welcome to February, Wizards fans. So far this season's been pretty good, right? We got a 15 game home win streak (and counting) in the books and after a 2-8 start are looking really pretty darned good and right in the thick of things in the East. Heck, we are in first place in the division. Now that January's over, it means the start of the end to the home game fiesta the team has been enjoying and some hard challenges on the road. That might make the team's grip on the playoffs slip a little. We'll see how badly they want to hold on to that dream.

I'm sure ownership, and not just the fans, are thrilled with the team's turnaround from their October and early November days, because it's now time for Ted Leonsis and Co. to ask their season ticket holders to pony up a little (more) dough for the privilege of watching the Wiz play during the 2017-2018 season. In 2016 and 2015, the Wizards released their tariffs for the coming year in the mid twenties of February; in 2014 it was a little earlier than that. I expect that the Monumental Sports executives will be licking the envelopes themselves they'll be in such a rush to get the renewal invoices out the door this year.

So the obvious question here is...will season tickets increase in price this year? My opinion is yes, they will for sure. And in some sections of the building they should not. Let's take a look at the case for both. As usual, I'll be approaching this subject from the viewpoint of a fan who sits in the corners of the building in the 100 level and the center of the arena in the 400 level because that's precisely where my seats are. I'm not necessarily being selfish here; I just happen to have more data about those spots in Verizon Center than any other locations.

But first a little history.

If you bought season tickets a decade ago (for the 2007-2008 NBA season), you'd be faced with a bill for $94 per game for corner seats in the 100 level and $15 per game in the upper deck center. The price was the same no matter where in the section your seats were, meaning you paid the same price for seats in the front row as you did for seats way in the back. Those prices generally held for the next four seasons through the end of the 2010-2011 season, John Wall's first in the NBA. Sure, the lower levels went up $4 per game and the nosebleeds added $1 to the price. That's essentially staying the same for me.

Then the team decided to rebuild so they offered fans a deal and cut prices in some locations of the building. They also offered to freeze prices for three years. For my lower level seats, this meant a reduction in price to $50 (a 47% savings); for my upper deck seats, there was no price change and they remained at $16 per contest. That deal lasted through the 2013-2014 season. It's important to note that new season ticket holders during this period might think the reduced prices are the going rate. Good for attracting new fans; not so good if they think they are paying full price because they might leave when prices go back up.

Since that time, ticket prices are up. In some cases, way up. Since the price freeze ended, the team has both raised prices and split the pricing in the lower level corners; they have done the same upstairs. The end result has been increases of $5, $11 and $14 over the previous three seasons downstairs for a total increase over that span of 60% and $4, $8 and $2 upstairs for a total increase over that span of a whopping 88%. That all seems like a lot but remember the lower level seats I bought this year are still $18 cheaper per contest than they were during the 2010-2011 season. Not the same for my upper deck tickets which are significantly higher than they have ever been.

So obviously some tickets at Verizon Center to watch the Wiz are cheaper than they were a decade ago. That might suggest that it's OK for the team to initiate another price hike, at least in the expensive seats. But what's been charged before is not the only measure we can apply to justify an increase in pricing. There are two other local indicators we and the Wizards should look at: (1) what's going on with the secondary market and (2) are people showing up to the games?

Over the past three seasons, I've tracked the pricing of Wizards tickets on the secondary market so I could better understand the value I'm getting for my money. I've done the same this year. I consider the per game price for my lower level corner tickets to be $82.93 and the price for my upstairs tickets to be $31.10. Yes, this is higher than the season ticket holder price; I've divided the cost of the preseason tickets we are forced to buy by 41 home games and added it to the per game price. This year's comparison shopping through today? See below:

Yep, you read that right. Tickets through the end of January were available cheaper on the resale market than they cost season ticket holders. A couple of notes here. First, I expect this number will increase for two reasons: (1) there are games remaining in the schedule vs. Cleveland and Golden State which will drive the per game average up and (2) nobody goes to Wizards games before Christmas. Well, maybe not nobody but when football's still on, folks tend to not go to watch hoops at Verizon Center.

Secondly, and much more important to me, season ticket holders are supposed to get a discount for buying a season at a time. Well we do vs. the gate price (the price printed on the ticket by the team regardless of the ability of the team to sell that ticket at that price) which is all the team guarantees. I would argue that we should also get a discount over the secondary market. Right now through this point in the season, we are not. And that's both troubling and a reason for the team not to raise prices.

Tuesday, January 31 vs. the Knicks. Right before the anthem.

While season ticket holders might care about the price of resale tickets as compared to what we pay, the team may not. While I'm sure they would prefer an active secondary market, especially since they make money off every Ticketmaster re-sale, they might not care so much providing the building was packed and rocking every night.  After all, if Verizon Center is THE place to be on hoops gamenights in the District, why not just raise gate prices and season ticket holder prices and damn the secondary market.

If there's anyone over at Monumental Sports that feels this way, I'd be surprised. Right now, the Wizards are currently sitting 25th in attendance (that's out of 30, folks!) in the league. That's not good. Paid attendance in the building averages 15,626 against a capacity (as reported by Wikipedia) of 20,308. I'd compare the Wikipedia number to an actual sellout this year but...

Paid attendance is just that. The amount of tickets that were sold. Based on my personal experience in the building this year, I'd be highly surprised if 15,626 were the number that showed up on average. I've tweeted pictures often this week showing empty rows and sections at home. It's not a good environment some nights and particularly weeknights.

Where does all that leave us? Wild variations in price growth or shrinkage over the last decade, a secondary market that doesn't seem like it's going to be much different than season ticket holder pricing and a half empty building on some game nights. Doesn't sound like it leaves the Wizards in a good spot relative to ticket price increases.

Having said all that, here's my call. First, I believe ticket prices will increase this year and my prediction (I'm a glass half empty guy today) is that they will increase most spots in the building. Yes, the slow resale market is a concern but the team's recent surge should solve that which will both hurt and help season ticket holders; this needs to be watched. Secondly, I believe prices for corner lower level seats should increase based primarily on the fact that they are currently cheaper than they were in the middle of the last decade. Finally, I believe ticket prices in the upper deck where I sit (in Section 415) should NOT increase but will. I believe the team will try to squeeze every drop there. 

We'll have to wait a couple of weeks to see how this all plays out. We'll see what kind of oracle I am. In the meantime, I think the team should think about the importance of retaining long time season ticket holders. The best way to do that is to keep prices reasonable. If it were me, I'd reward loyalty by keeping long time ticket holder prices lower than new subscribers. I know that benefits me but that's my thought. Getting non-fairweather season ticket holders to renew is the best way to build back our fan base; I know too many people who (probably justifiably) bailed on the team after last season's increases.